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标题: 塔州HOBART的房价下跌！ [打印本页]

作者: Mao 时间: 2008-7-13 17:19
标题: 塔州HOBART的房价下跌！
By CHARLES WATERHOUSE

July 13, 2008 12:00am
HOBART recorded the biggest fall in housing prices of any metropolitan market in Australia last month

Hobart house prices fell 2.24 per cent and units 2 per cent.

However, the news was not all bad.

In the 12 months to June, Hobart house prices grew 11.96 per cent and unit prices rose 11.61 per cent.

House and unit prices in nearly every city and regional centre in Australia fell last month, property analyst Residex found.

The last time house prices fell in all states was just before the Great Depression.

The slump is affecting the top end of the market as well as the lower end.

Residex chief executive John Edwards said: "It looks like we are moving into a one-in-100 year event.

"It points to a situation where unless the Government and Reserve Bank take action, Australia could move into a recession.

"The only other times this has ever occurred were before we have moved into severe recessions.

"Never in my lifetime have I seen so many converging negative events."

His gloomy predictions were not supported by Real Estate Institute of Tasmania chief executive Martin Harris and Housing Industry Association Tasmanian executive director Stuart Clues.

Mr Harris said a drop in sales and values across Australia had occurred.

"But the good part from Tasmania's perspective is the negative impact on us is likely to be minimal compared to Victoria and NSW for example," he said.

"I would expect no more than a

5 to 10 per cent adjustment drop in the market."

Higher interest rates were hurting some people but there were not mass mortgagee sales in Tasmania, Mr Harris said.

The Tasmanian market was slightly more insulated because "historically Tasmanians have not mortgaged themselves to the hilt", he said.

Mr Harris said fears of a recession were over the top.

"It's a pretty gloomy reaction, an overreaction, to say the least," he said.

Mr Clues said lending for housing had fallen for three consecutive months in Tasmania -- March (down 8 per cent), April (down 3 per cent) and May (down 20 per cent).

But he said the "whopping" fall recorded in May was not expected to continue.

"We would not support a doomsday-type event and housing prices going into free-fall," Mr Clues said.

"In Tasmania we have seen steady growth, not a massive boom, for the last five or six years."

作者: 荷包蛋 时间: 2008-7-13 19:10
这。。暂时跟我没关系~~~~

作者: hfwang 时间: 2008-7-13 19:14
利好消息

作者: rambler 时间: 2008-7-13 19:41
房价下跌...房租依然在上扬...

作者: Alex 时间: 2008-7-13 19:44
However, the news was not all bad......
呵呵,替没房人说句话:其实这是个完完全全的好消息.因为澳洲房贷现在有9.XX%了,房价再不跌,别说以后是我们,就是洋人也没力气承担了.......

作者: 晨风凉 时间: 2008-7-14 01:54
暂时没有考虑去买房。。。

作者: yxhu 时间: 2008-7-14 10:01
标题: 回复 5# Alex 的帖子
标价9.xx% 真的贷下来一般也就8.6x%，还是可以的。:d

作者: Alex 时间: 2008-7-14 10:20
7#是过去的ANDY老弟吗?
呵呵,感觉像
其实不知道你算过没有:别说1.09的30次方,就是1.086的20次方(20年息)已经是连本带利5.2倍多,这个价格以20万贷款额粗略计算是总共104多万本金加利息,20年每月还4333左右,月实际税后收入在6000下的很难承担.奥,我是个BACHELOR还,所以压力更大些,如果是COUPLE一起还的家庭还是可以的,不过即便这样,男女两个都至少是中产水平才可能.

作者: andy-xu 时间: 2008-7-14 10:24

原帖由 yxhu 于 2008-7-14 10:01 发表
标价9.xx% 真的贷下来一般也就8.6x%，还是可以的。:d

说的容易,这个价格现在只能是蜜月期的,过了呢？今天ＣＯＭＭＢＡＮＫ又加０.１４，怎么也要到８.８了，１０月还要加．．．．

作者: andy-xu 时间: 2008-7-14 10:25

原帖由 Alex 于 2008-7-14 10:20 发表
7#是过去的ANDY老弟吗?
呵呵,感觉像
其实不知道你算过没有:别说1.09的30次方,就是1.086的20次方(20年息)已经是连本带利5.2倍多,这个价格以20万贷款额粗略计算是总共104多万本金加利息,20年每月还4333左右,月实际税 ...

本人可不改名字，还是ＡＮＤＹ－ＸＵ也

作者: Alex 时间: 2008-7-14 10:54
呵呵,你又出现了,哎,日子是不好过啊
我和ANDY老弟不是泼大家凉水,买房这个事情在没有一定工作年限和财富积累的情况下不要贸然行动,(有钱人例外,人家一气买几套的咱们不能比).

作者: yxhu 时间: 2008-7-14 11:25

原帖由 Alex 于 2008-7-14 10:20 发表
7#是过去的ANDY老弟吗?
呵呵,感觉像
其实不知道你算过没有:别说1.09的30次方,就是1.086的20次方(20年息)已经是连本带利5.2倍多,这个价格以20万贷款额粗略计算是总共104多万本金加利息,20年每月还4333左右,月实际税 ...

已经买了，就这样吧。日子还是这样过，最坏不就是卖掉，好在kevin Rodd的政策好，要大量引进移民。
房子是永远不够的，现在买房子投资08年是个不错的年。

还有贷款不一定要问银行贷。买了房子租出去，会有很多Tax上面的优惠。还有上面的计算方法不对。贷款20万就算9.5%得利息，一个月还款也没4k多。

作者: nathanxu 时间: 2008-7-14 11:36

原帖由 yxhu 于 14/7/2008 11:25 发表

已经买了，就这样吧。日子还是这样过，最坏不就是卖掉，好在kevin Rodd的政策好，要大量引进移民。
房子是永远不够的，现在买房子投资08年是个不错的年。

还有贷款不一定要问银行贷。买了房子租出去，会有 ...

If you going to rent out your house, don't you have to pay Capital Gain Tax?

作者: yxhu 时间: 2008-7-14 11:53
标题: 回复 13# nathanxu 的帖子
No, since your earning always lower than your spending.

for a brand new apartment here in sydeny you will also have 2.5% depreciation of your property value. that also count as your cost. for example:

Say your property worth $500,000
you rent your property for $600 pw, so every month your rental income is $2600.
you paying monthly Mortgage at $4000 per month so every month you only pay $1400 for your mortgage. and $1400 can be claimed as Tax return.

as I said, you also have 2.5% depreciation of your property value, you can also claim that as Tax return. so $500,000 x 2.5% = $12,500.

so the total figure for Tax return will be $1400 x 12 + $12,500 = $29,300.

if you earn $90,000 a year, that mean your Tax return will be $10,755.

distrubute $10,755 to every month's mortgage payment, for every month you only need to pay $503.75.

so to maintain a $500,000 property monthly cost to you is about $500.

and remember, mortgage is being paid less and less, and rental income is getting more and more, so by one day (roughly around 5 -7 years, thats why property value here in Australia doubled every 7 years) your rental income will be more than your mortgage, (that's is the time you start to paying Capital Gain TAX).

I say 5-7 years is just an average, here in Sydney in some suburbs is about 3 - 5 years.

As Kevin Rodd's new immigration policy, I think that 3-5 years will be shorter.

作者: nathanxu 时间: 2008-7-14 11:57
I actually always thought you only pay 50% Capital Gain Tax when you sale your property, however, you are exempted from paying CGT if you are using the property as your primary resident. But I am not an accountant, I have no idea with how it works.

作者: yxhu 时间: 2008-7-14 12:12
标题: 回复 15# nathanxu 的帖子
50% is not 100% correct.

how it works is.
e.g. if you bought your property at $500,000 and sold it at $600,000
you are earning $100,000 profit.

when you are paying CGT, it firstly splits $100,000 into 2 parts, 50k and 50k
the first 50k you don' need to pay TAX, and the 2nd 50k will be added to your main income during that finance year.

if you are earning 50k from your normal job, during that finance year, it will regard you as earning 100k.

so to maximize reduce your Tax, you can suspend your normal job for that finance year, go somewhere for holiday. so they only charge you TAX base on 50k instead of 100k. :)

作者: Alex 时间: 2008-7-14 13:11

原帖由 yxhu 于 2008-7-14 11:25 发表

已经买了，就这样吧。日子还是这样过，最坏不就是卖掉，好在kevin Rodd的政策好，要大量引进移民。
房子是永远不够的，现在买房子投资08年是个不错的年。

还有贷款不一定要问银行贷。买了房子租出去，会有 ...

我有个疑问:如果你买了的房子租出去不是还要自己再租房子?虽然通过用租金差价还贷不失为好办法,可是即便如此在房款还清前实际的享受权还是得不到啊,另外我在澳洲还没买房,希望你帮我计算下9%的房贷利率20年的贷款额,或者给我一个公式.谢谢

作者: yxhu 时间: 2008-7-14 17:37
标题: 回复 17# Alex 的帖子
你还没告诉我你贷多少。很多银行网站上都有mortgage calculator，
自己去算一下就知道了。

还有，要告诉你的是，在澳洲住自己买的房子永远是一种 Luxury

我见过很多人拥有3-4套房子，自己还是租房子住。你拥有的房子书数量越多，你还款的速度越快。还有一点，可能是文化的不同，这里只有你背上了负资产，你才有可能赚钱。（因为你赚得越多，缴的TAX越多，如果你的账面都是负的，那么你能最大幅度的TAX RETURN）

我之前说过你如果你买房子租出去收租金，同时还贷款，你每月的贷款数额随着你的还款会越还越少，而你的租金每年都是在涨得，因此你会达到一个焦点，焦点就是收支平衡的那一年，从那年之后你的租金收入将大于你的贷款支出。目前来讲从你买房子开始到那个焦点，平均年份是5-7年，房子拥有越多，这个周期越短。

霍巴特的房子在2004年一下子涨了很多，不过相对其它大城市来说还是便宜很多。加上政府的政策，去那里的移民会越来越多，我不知道你什么时候到hobart的，不知道你有没有经历过TUU的房子从75块一周涨到100块一周。这个就是现实。

作者: andy-xu 时间: 2008-7-15 14:44
哈哈,杠上了，继续啊。我拿个板凳坐着慢慢看.

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